The storm of shortages is contagious again and again. International original factory out-of-stock intensified, delivery time further extended. Can domestic components quench the thirst of foreign shortages? This is an unprecedented difficulty faced by the industry.

"The shortage is so bad that the factory is really going to stop." This is the voice coming from the front line of the electronics manufacturing industry. I think many people have heard. At the Fifth BLDC Motor Drive Conference in Shenzhen organized by Electronic Fever, those who made fascia guns, fans, and even sweepers, could not get the goods. The same day is another MCU international manufacturers organized in Shenzhen summit, a wave of demand for goods army flocked to the scene, looking for their boss in China to get goods, have touched the closed door.

Figure: ST MCU 2021 Summit site

"I went directly to their boss for goods, the project in my hand is to do export orders, take the order to ask them what to do, no goods will take our lives ah." A do ST MCU program Yang Gong, the morning in the ST Summit directly to find the ST attended the meeting of the Chinese executives to ask for goods. But no results.

Picture: MCU development boards displayed by Mega Innovation at the BLDC2021 booth at eFever.com

In the afternoon he immediately came to the site of BLDC motor conference again, and went straight to the ST table to ask the staff if there were still goods. When he learned the negative results, he was directly angry. No goods, what do you come out to do to promote?

Of course, this anger is an emotional thing. Orders for export are not allowed to change the components on the BOD list. Otherwise, it will lead to a return or even a fine.

On that day, there were more than a dozen chip manufacturers attended the meeting of BLDC motor drive, the scene, in addition to QORVO's experts said that there are goods, none of the other guests dared to say that there must be goods. Even if there are goods of domestic IC, can only say that help deployment. To be honest, it is the goods on hand, little by little to the right customers. Anyway, those who make fascia guns and fans will definitely not give the goods. The original factory is not willing to release goods for products with large volume and low price. Do automotive chip core Wang micro experts said that now their prices have risen, the upstream with okay. Anyway, expensive people pay the bill, the upstream resources with the degree of cooperation will be good.

In the end, what is the reason for the long-term shortage of goods and can not be resolved? TSMC's expert analysis of market demand has not changed significantly, wafer manufacturing capacity is certainly not in short supply. This is explained by the balance of total supply and demand. Cell phone and PC demand have slowed, and medical and new energy vehicles have increased. Localized imbalance exists, which everyone understands.

At the MCU market experts' get-together conference, a new feature in the supply chain is now being discussed: disintermediation. By the international manufacturers TI and ADI in the past few years to implement the de-intermediation of distributors, the trend of direct sales of enterprises has been carried out for three years, TI has only one distributor, ADI has only two distributors, coupled with mergers and acquisitions between large manufacturers, a lot of the agents business consolidation, in the annual order forecasting on a more simplified, more convergence of information in one or two reporting lines will inevitably be omitted, which will lead to a higher level of This can lead to quick, one-size-fits-all decision-making at higher levels. Smaller performing regions, less profitable or even loss-making product lines will be adjusted and demand will be ignored. So localized shortages will become a long-term necessity.

Pictured: Nationwide Technology's display at the eAuthority.com BLDC 2021 event

Another way to look at disintermediation. It is that the component spot will be passed to the terminal or trader more quickly.

In the first case, if the goods are in the hands of traders, the profit drive of speculation will be infinitely magnified. Electronic enthusiasts heard, the first two days of a common material, the offer in the e-commerce platform is 180 yuan a piece, he dared to raise the price to 280 to sell. After selling, the market price on the third day became 280 yuan a piece of industry-wide offer. The author believes that this is a very obvious cargo control offer. As long as there is a price increase in the finished product sold, in the market will be rumored to be acceptable price and all people shy away from selling. Who dares to succeed in price increases, that is a reasonable market price. How similar to rising home prices. Don't forget that the dilemma of rising house prices hasn't been solved in all these years.

Image: Netizens confirmed through discussions on motor MCU that the goods have arrived at the solution company or terminal, but the channels have not distributed the goods
The second scenario is that the components in stock have already arrived at the terminal. Terminal manufacturing companies are now striving to place orders in cash before increasing prices on the original factory or supply. If you can buy the goods back, thank God. If there is still one component on the BOM that has not arrived, it means that the enterprise is out of stock and cannot deliver. The current shortage of MCUs is the most severe, leading to the inability to ship, which is the weakness of this bucket. But no one would cut the long board of the bucket short. That is to say, all the goods stored in hand are increasing in value. Until the company announces production stoppage or capital rupture, the manufacturing company will definitely not release the theoretically unnecessary materials, and exchange them for the materials that other companies will also produce exactly what they need. The previous zero inventory operation of manufacturing enterprises was actually a reservoir that the supply chain had always played a great role in. Whoever is short of water, just let some go, there's no need for more. Because the cost of capital accumulation needs to be borne by the enterprise. So minimalist de intermediation eliminates the industry's biggest role in material storage and transfer.
With the soaring prices now, everyone has a reason to demand goods instead of cash. Goods that cannot be sold can quickly increase in value, and low interest rates and even depreciation of cash due to global flooding are meaningless. The combination of disintermediation, currency depreciation, and material scarcity, coupled with China US relations and the pandemic, high-value medical equipment and new energy vehicles competing for component production capacity, has led to an unprecedented crisis in the manufacturing supply chain!

Image: Products showcased by Jihai Semiconductor at the BLDC 2021 event on the electronic enthusiast website

After the brainstorming of many experts in the industry, the root cause of the shortage has finally been gradually understood.
What will happen next? The terminal products have not seen a significant surge yet, but soon the inventory produced at low production costs will be sold out. Financial profits can be realized. After a new order is placed, it is certain that it cannot be sold at the original price, but the terminal cannot raise the price first. Because the price increase of electronic products will inevitably reduce demand on the C-end, or be forced to leave due to competitors taking away customers. What should we do now? Stopping production is a good choice. Don't sell, don't lose, and don't harm the brand. Over the past many years, haven't well-known C-end brands been driven by thirst for marketing? Now it has expanded, and the entire industry is thirsty for C-end marketing.
To untie the bell, one needs to tie the bell. This bell was hung by many people together, so it requires many people to decipher.